'pop.land.ratio.lag1' = "Population/Land ",'is.democ.lag1'='Democracy','net.inforce.bits.lag1'='Num BITs Total',
'pop.leader.blair.lag1:exec.ecopref.lag1' = "Populist Leader X Economic Ideology"),
output = "Tables//TableB5.docx")
pacman::p_load(tidyverse,lfe,readxl,stargazer,interflex,sandwich,lmtest,clubSandwich,fect,
marginaleffects,brglm,survival,survminer,ggpubr,margins,PanelMatch,flextable,modelsummary)
#Make Table
modelsummary::modelsummary(surv1a,stars = c('*' = .1, '**' = .05,'***'=.01),
coef_rename = c('pop.leader.blair.lag1'="Populist Leader",'exec.ecopref.lag1'="Economic Ideology",
'log(pop.lag1)'="Log Population", 'log(gdp.lag1)'="Log GDP",
'gdp.growth.wb.lag1' = "GDP Growth", 'log.res_gdp.lag1'="Log Natural Resource Rents/GDP",
'fdi.gdp.lag1'="FDI/GDP",'trade.openness.lag1'='Trade Openness', 'active.imfloans.lag1'="Active IMF Loans",
'foreign.exp.dummy.lag1'='Lagged Foreign Expropriation Event',
'pop.land.ratio.lag1' = "Population/Land ",'is.democ.lag1'='Democracy','net.inforce.bits.lag1'='Num BITs Total',
'pop.leader.blair.lag1:exec.ecopref.lag1' = "Populist Leader X Economic Ideology"),
output = "Tables//TableB5.docx")
#Make Table
modelsummary::modelsummary(surv1a,stars = c('*' = .1, '**' = .05,'***'=.01),
coef_rename = c('pop.leader.blair.lag1'="Populist Leader",'exec.ecopref.lag1'="Economic Ideology",
'log(pop.lag1)'="Log Population", 'log(gdp.lag1)'="Log GDP",
'gdp.growth.wb.lag1' = "GDP Growth", 'log.res_gdp.lag1'="Log Natural Resource Rents/GDP",
'fdi.gdp.lag1'="FDI/GDP",'trade.openness.lag1'='Trade Openness', 'active.imfloans.lag1'="Active IMF Loans",
'foreign.exp.dummy.lag1'='Lagged Foreign Expropriation Event',
'pop.land.ratio.lag1' = "Population/Land ",'is.democ.lag1'='Democracy','net.inforce.bits.lag1'='Num BITs Total',
'pop.leader.blair.lag1:exec.ecopref.lag1' = "Populist Leader X Economic Ideology"),
output = "Tables//TableB5.pdf")
#Make Table
modelsummary::modelsummary(surv1a,stars = c('*' = .1, '**' = .05,'***'=.01),
coef_rename = c('pop.leader.blair.lag1'="Populist Leader",'exec.ecopref.lag1'="Economic Ideology",
'log(pop.lag1)'="Log Population", 'log(gdp.lag1)'="Log GDP",
'gdp.growth.wb.lag1' = "GDP Growth", 'log.res_gdp.lag1'="Log Natural Resource Rents/GDP",
'fdi.gdp.lag1'="FDI/GDP",'trade.openness.lag1'='Trade Openness', 'active.imfloans.lag1'="Active IMF Loans",
'foreign.exp.dummy.lag1'='Lagged Foreign Expropriation Event',
'pop.land.ratio.lag1' = "Population/Land ",'is.democ.lag1'='Democracy','net.inforce.bits.lag1'='Num BITs Total',
'pop.leader.blair.lag1:exec.ecopref.lag1' = "Populist Leader X Economic Ideology"),
output = "Tables//TableB5.jpg")
#Make Table
modelsummary::modelsummary(surv1a,stars = c('*' = .1, '**' = .05,'***'=.01),
coef_rename = c('pop.leader.blair.lag1'="Populist Leader",'exec.ecopref.lag1'="Economic Ideology",
'log(pop.lag1)'="Log Population", 'log(gdp.lag1)'="Log GDP",
'gdp.growth.wb.lag1' = "GDP Growth", 'log.res_gdp.lag1'="Log Natural Resource Rents/GDP",
'fdi.gdp.lag1'="FDI/GDP",'trade.openness.lag1'='Trade Openness', 'active.imfloans.lag1'="Active IMF Loans",
'foreign.exp.dummy.lag1'='Lagged Foreign Expropriation Event',
'pop.land.ratio.lag1' = "Population/Land ",'is.democ.lag1'='Democracy','net.inforce.bits.lag1'='Num BITs Total',
'pop.leader.blair.lag1:exec.ecopref.lag1' = "Populist Leader X Economic Ideology"),
output = "Tables//TableB5.html")
#Subset data to observations with common support on Ideology Scale
maxmin.ideo <- main.df %>% filter(pop.leader.blair==1) %>% summarize(maxIdeo = max(exec.ecopref.lag1,na.rm=T),
minIdeo = min(exec.ecopref.lag1,na.rm = T)) %>% as.matrix()
csupp.main.df <- main.df %>% dplyr::filter(exec.ecopref.lag1 < maxmin.ideo[1] & exec.ecopref.lag1 > maxmin.ideo[2])
#Make figure
interflex(estimator = 'raw',Y='foreign.exp.dummy',D='pop.leader.blair.lag1',X='exec.ecopref.lag1',data = as.data.frame(csupp.main.df),na.rm = T,
Xlabel ='Left-Right Ideology',theme.bw = T, Ylabel = 'Probability of Expropriation of Foreing Assests')
ggsave('Figures//FigureB1.jpg',width = 7,height = 6)
interflex(Y = "foreign.exp.dummy", D = "pop.leader.blair.lag1", X = "exec.ecopref.lag1", Z=covs.model1,data = as.data.frame(main.df), estimator = "binning", FE = c("ccode.cow", "year"), cl = "ccode.cow",na.rm = T,
xlab ='Left-Right Ideology',theme.bw = T, ylab = 'Probability of Expropriation of Foreing Assests')
covs.model1 <-  c('net.inforce.bits.lag1', 'foreign.exp.dummy.lag1',
"log.pop.lag1",'log.gdp.lag1', 'gdp.growth.wb.lag1','fdi.gdp.lag1','trade.openness.lag1','log.res_gdp.lag1',
'active.imfloans.lag1','pop.land.ratio.lag1','is.democ.lag1')
interflex(Y = "foreign.exp.dummy", D = "pop.leader.blair.lag1", X = "exec.ecopref.lag1", Z=covs.model1,data = as.data.frame(main.df), estimator = "binning", FE = c("ccode.cow", "year"), cl = "ccode.cow",na.rm = T,
xlab ='Left-Right Ideology',theme.bw = T, ylab = 'Probability of Expropriation of Foreing Assests')
ggsave('Figures//FigureB2.jpg',width = 7,height = 6)
interflex(Y = "foreign.exp.dummy", D = "pop.leader.blair.lag1", X = "exec.ecopref.lag1", Z=covs.model1,data = as.data.frame(csupp.main.df), estimator = "kernel", FE = c("ccode.cow", "year"), cl = "ccode.cow",na.rm = T,
xlab ='Left-Right Ideology',theme.bw = T, ylab = 'Probability of Expropriation of Foreing Assests')
set.seed(1234)
interflex(Y = "foreign.exp.dummy", D = "pop.leader.blair.lag1", X = "exec.ecopref.lag1", Z=covs.model1,data = as.data.frame(csupp.main.df), estimator = "kernel", FE = c("ccode.cow", "year"), cl = "ccode.cow",na.rm = T,
xlab ='Left-Right Ideology',theme.bw = T, ylab = 'Probability of Expropriation of Foreing Assests')
ggsave('Figures//FigureB3.jpg',width = 7,height = 6)
set.seed(1234)
interflex(Y = "foreign.exp.dummy", D = "pop.leader.blair.lag1", X = "exec.ecopref.lag1", Z=covs.model1,data = as.data.frame(csupp.main.df), estimator = "kernel", FE = c("ccode.cow", "year"), cl = "ccode.cow",na.rm = T,
xlab ='Left-Right Ideology',theme.bw = T, ylab = 'Probability of Expropriation of Foreing Assests')
#####Figure B4 (Appendix)######
#Ideology Squared Model
test1d.int.cs.sq <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~pop.leader.blair.lag1*I(exec.ecopref.lag1^2) + pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) + res_gdp.lag1  +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1 + foreign.exp.dummy.lag1  + pop.land.ratio.lag1+
is.democ.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1|ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = csupp.main.df)
#Define Plotting Function
interaction_plot.sq<- function(model,b3,b4,b5, varcov, at, conf=.95,miny,maxy,title,xlabel,ylabel){
# Extract Variance Covariance matrix
covMat = varcov
# Extract the data frame of the model
mod_frame = model.frame(model)
# Get coefficients of variables
beta_1 = model$coefficients[[b3]]
beta_3 = model$coefficients[[b4]]
beta_5 = model$coefficients[[b5]]
# Create list of moderator values at which marginal effect is evaluated
x_2 <- at
# Compute marginal effects
delta_1 = beta_1 + beta_3*x_2 + beta_5*x_2^2
# Compute variances
var_1 = covMat[b3,b3] + (x_2^2)*covMat[b4, b4] + (x_2^4)*covMat[b5, b5] + 2*x_2*covMat[b3, b4] + 2*x_2^2*covMat[b3, b5] + 2*x_2^3*covMat[b4, b5]
# Standard errors
se_1 = sqrt(var_1)
# Upper and lower confidence bounds
z_score = qnorm(1 - ((1 - conf)/2))
upper_bound = delta_1 + z_score*se_1
lower_bound = delta_1 - z_score*se_1
#Make Plot
ggplot() + geom_line(aes(x=x_2,y=delta_1)) + geom_ribbon(aes(x=x_2,y=delta_1,ymin=lower_bound,ymax=upper_bound),alpha=0.5) +
geom_hline(yintercept = 0,linetype='dashed') + ylim(miny,maxy) + xlim(min(x_2),max(x_2)) +
xlab(xlabel) + ylab(ylabel) + ggtitle(title) + theme_bw()
}
interaction_plot.sq(test1d.int.cs.sq,1,16,15,
varcov = test1d.int.cs.sq$clustervcv,at=seq(min(csupp.main.df$exec.ecopref.lag1,na.rm = T),max(csupp.main.df$exec.ecopref.lag1,na.rm = T),0.1),
maxy = 1,miny = -0.2,title = '',
xlabel = "Left-Right Ideology", ylabel = 'Marginal Effect of Populist Leader on Probability of Expropriation')
ggsave('Figures//FigureB4.jpg',width = 7,height = 5)
#####Figure B6 (Appendix)######
test1d.int.cs <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) + res_gdp.lag1  +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1 + foreign.exp.dummy.lag1  + pop.land.ratio.lag1+
is.democ.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1 |ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = csupp.main.df)
stargazer(test1d.int.cs,type = 'text',title = 'Effect of Populism on Expropriation Likelihood with Data satisfying Common Support Assumption',
label = 'res.pop.exp.interaction.cs', keep.stat = c('n','rsq'),font.size = 'scriptsize',dep.var.caption = "",
dep.var.labels = 'Foreign Expropriation Event', no.space = T,
order = c(1,2,14,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13),
covariate.labels = c("Populist Leader$_{t-1}$","Economic Ideology$_{t-1}$","Populist Leader$_{t-1}$ X \\text{Economic Ideology}$_{t-1}$",
"Log Population$_{t-1}$","Log GDP$_{t-1}$","Natural Resource Rents/GDP$_{t-1}$","GDP Growth$_{t-1}$","FDI/GDP$_{t-1}$","Trade Openness$_{t-1}$","Active IMF Loan$_{t-1}$",
"Foreign Expropriation Event$_{t-1}$","Population/Land$_{t-1}$","Democracy$_{t-1}$","Num BITs Total$_{t-1}$"),
add.lines = list(c('Country Fixed Effects','Yes'),c('Year Fixed Effects','Yes')),
out = 'Tables//TableB6.doc')
stargazer(test1d.int.cs,type = 'html',title = 'Effect of Populism on Expropriation Likelihood with Data satisfying Common Support Assumption',
label = 'res.pop.exp.interaction.cs', keep.stat = c('n','rsq'),font.size = 'scriptsize',dep.var.caption = "",
dep.var.labels = 'Foreign Expropriation Event', no.space = T,
order = c(1,2,14,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13),
covariate.labels = c("Populist Leader$_{t-1}$","Economic Ideology$_{t-1}$","Populist Leader$_{t-1}$ X \\text{Economic Ideology}$_{t-1}$",
"Log Population$_{t-1}$","Log GDP$_{t-1}$","Natural Resource Rents/GDP$_{t-1}$","GDP Growth$_{t-1}$","FDI/GDP$_{t-1}$","Trade Openness$_{t-1}$","Active IMF Loan$_{t-1}$",
"Foreign Expropriation Event$_{t-1}$","Population/Land$_{t-1}$","Democracy$_{t-1}$","Num BITs Total$_{t-1}$"),
add.lines = list(c('Country Fixed Effects','Yes'),c('Year Fixed Effects','Yes')),
out = 'Tables//TableB6.doc')
#####Figure B7 (Appendix)######
rare.logit <- brglm(foreign.exp.dummy ~pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1+ + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) + log.res_gdp.lag1 +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1 + foreign.exp.dummy.lag1  + pop.land.ratio.lag1+
is.democ.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1 + factor(ccode.cow) + factor(year), family=binomial(link="logit"), method = "brglm.fit", p1 = T, data = as.data.frame(main.df))
clust.rob <- coef_test(rare.logit,vcovCR(rare.logit,cluster = main.df$ccode.cow,type = 'CR2'))
regular.logit <- glm(foreign.exp.dummy ~pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1+ + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) + log.res_gdp.lag1 +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1 + foreign.exp.dummy.lag1  + pop.land.ratio.lag1+
is.democ.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1, family=binomial(link="logit"), data = as.data.frame(main.df))
clust.rob_reg.logit <- coef_test(regular.logit,vcovCR(regular.logit,cluster = main.df$ccode.cow,type = 'CR2'))
#Make Table
stargazer(rare.logit,regular.logit,type = 'text',title = 'Models Accounting for Limited Dependent Variable',
omit = c('ccode.cow','year'),font.size = 'scriptsize',dep.var.caption = "",
dep.var.labels = 'Foreign Expropriation Dummy',
model.names = F,
column.labels = c('Penalized ML Estimation','Logit Model'),
order = c(1,2,182,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13),no.space = T,
se=list(clust.rob[,3],clust.rob_reg.logit[,3]),p=list(clust.rob[,6],clust.rob_reg.logit[,6]),
covariate.labels = c("Populist Leader$_{t-1}$","Economic Ideology$_{t-1}$","Populist Leader$_{t-1}$ X \\text{Economic Ideology}$_{t-1}$",
"Log Population$_{t-1}$","Log GDP$_{t-1}$","Natural Resource Rents/GDP$_{t-1}$","GDP Growth$_{t-1}$","FDI/GDP$_{t-1}$","Trade Openness$_{t-1}$","Active IMF Loan$_{t-1}$",
"Foreign Expropriation Event$_{t-1}$","Population/Land$_{t-1}$","Democracy$_{t-1}$","Num BITs Total$_{t-1}$"),
out = 'Tables//TableB7.doc')
#Make Table
stargazer(rare.logit,regular.logit,type = 'html',title = 'Models Accounting for Limited Dependent Variable',
omit = c('ccode.cow','year'),font.size = 'scriptsize',dep.var.caption = "",
dep.var.labels = 'Foreign Expropriation Dummy',
model.names = F,
column.labels = c('Penalized ML Estimation','Logit Model'),
order = c(1,2,182,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13),no.space = T,
se=list(clust.rob[,3],clust.rob_reg.logit[,3]),p=list(clust.rob[,6],clust.rob_reg.logit[,6]),
covariate.labels = c("Populist Leader$_{t-1}$","Economic Ideology$_{t-1}$","Populist Leader$_{t-1}$ X \\text{Economic Ideology}$_{t-1}$",
"Log Population$_{t-1}$","Log GDP$_{t-1}$","Natural Resource Rents/GDP$_{t-1}$","GDP Growth$_{t-1}$","FDI/GDP$_{t-1}$","Trade Openness$_{t-1}$","Active IMF Loan$_{t-1}$",
"Foreign Expropriation Event$_{t-1}$","Population/Land$_{t-1}$","Democracy$_{t-1}$","Num BITs Total$_{t-1}$"),
out = 'Tables//TableB7.doc')
main.df$korbin_all_dummy <- if_else(main.df$korbin_cov_exp_dummy == 1 | main.df$korbin_exprop_dummy == 1,1,0)
main.df$korbin_all_dummy.lag1 <- if_else(main.df$korbin_cov_exp_dummy.lag1 == 1 | main.df$korbin_exprop_dummy.lag1 == 1,1,0)
#Models
test1d.korbin <- lfe::felm(korbin_exprop_dummy ~pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) + res_gdp.lag1  +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1 + korbin_exprop_dummy.lag1  + pop.land.ratio.lag1+
is.democ.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1 |ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data =  main.df)
test1d.korbin.cov <- lfe::felm(korbin_cov_exp_dummy ~ pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1 + exec.ecopref.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) + res_gdp.lag1  +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1 + korbin_cov_exp_dummy.lag1  + pop.land.ratio.lag1+
is.democ.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1 |ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data =  main.df)
test1d.korbin.all <- lfe::felm(korbin_all_dummy ~pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1+ exec.ecopref.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) + res_gdp.lag1  +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1 + korbin_all_dummy.lag1  + pop.land.ratio.lag1+
is.democ.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1 |ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data =  main.df)
#Make Table
stargazer(test1d.korbin.all,test1d.korbin,test1d.korbin.cov,type = 'text',title = 'Effect of Populism on Expropriation using Kobrin Data, 1990-2014',
label = 'kobrin.res.tab', keep.stat = c('n','rsq'),font.size = 'scriptsize',dep.var.caption = "",dep.var.labels.include = F,
column.labels = c('All Korbin Exprop Dummy','Overt Exprop. Dummy','Covert Exprop. Dummy'),
order = c(1,2,16,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15),no.space = T,
covariate.labels = c("Populist Leader$_{t-1}$","Economic Ideology$_{t-1}$","Populist Leader$_{t-1}$ X \\text{Economic Ideology}$_{t-1}$",
"Log Population$_{t-1}$","Log GDP$_{t-1}$","Natural Resource Rents/GDP$_{t-1}$","GDP Growth$_{t-1}$","FDI/GDP$_{t-1}$","Trade Openness$_{t-1}$","Active IMF Loan$_{t-1}$",
"All Exprop. Dummy$_{t-1}$","Overt Exprop. Dummy$_{t-1}$","Covert Exprop. Dummy$_{t-1}$","Population/Land$_{t-1}$","Democracy$_{t-1}$","Num BITs Total$_{t-1}$",'Former Communist$_{t-1}$'),
add.lines = list(c('Country Fixed Effects','Yes','Yes','Yes'),c('Year Fixed Effects','Yes','Yes','Yes')),
out = 'Tables//TableB8.doc')
#Make Table
stargazer(test1d.korbin.all,test1d.korbin,test1d.korbin.cov,type = 'html',title = 'Effect of Populism on Expropriation using Kobrin Data, 1990-2014',
label = 'kobrin.res.tab', keep.stat = c('n','rsq'),font.size = 'scriptsize',dep.var.caption = "",dep.var.labels.include = F,
column.labels = c('All Korbin Exprop Dummy','Overt Exprop. Dummy','Covert Exprop. Dummy'),
order = c(1,2,16,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15),no.space = T,
covariate.labels = c("Populist Leader$_{t-1}$","Economic Ideology$_{t-1}$","Populist Leader$_{t-1}$ X \\text{Economic Ideology}$_{t-1}$",
"Log Population$_{t-1}$","Log GDP$_{t-1}$","Natural Resource Rents/GDP$_{t-1}$","GDP Growth$_{t-1}$","FDI/GDP$_{t-1}$","Trade Openness$_{t-1}$","Active IMF Loan$_{t-1}$",
"All Exprop. Dummy$_{t-1}$","Overt Exprop. Dummy$_{t-1}$","Covert Exprop. Dummy$_{t-1}$","Population/Land$_{t-1}$","Democracy$_{t-1}$","Num BITs Total$_{t-1}$",'Former Communist$_{t-1}$'),
add.lines = list(c('Country Fixed Effects','Yes','Yes','Yes'),c('Year Fixed Effects','Yes','Yes','Yes')),
out = 'Tables//TableB8.doc')
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pacman::p_load(tidyverse,lfe,readxl,stargazer,interflex,sandwich,lmtest,clubSandwich,fect,
marginaleffects,brglm,survival,survminer,ggpubr,margins,PanelMatch,flextable,modelsummary,
gtsummary)
out.fect <- fect(foreign.exp.dummy ~ left_pop_blair + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1)    +log.res_gdp.lag1 +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1  + active.imfloans.lag1 + foreign.exp.dummy.lag1  + pop.land.ratio.lag1+
is.democ.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1, data = main.df, index = c("ccode.cow","year"), na.rm = T,
force = "two-way", se = TRUE, parallel = TRUE, nboots = 200,method = "mc", CV = TRUE,seed = 1234)
out.fect$est.avg
plot(out.fect, main = "Estimated ATT (MC)", ylab = "Effect of Left Populist Leader on Expropriation",
cex.main = 0.8, cex.lab = 0.8, cex.axis = 0.8)
plot(out.fect, type = "equiv", ylim = c(-0.05,0.05), ylab = "Effect on Expropriation",
cex.legend = 0.6, main = "Testing Pre-Trend (MC)", cex.text = 0.8)
plot(out.fect, main = "Estimated ATT (MC)", ylab = "Effect of Left Populist Leader on Expropriation",
cex.main = 0.8, cex.lab = 0.8, cex.axis = 0.8)
ggsave('Figures//FigureB5.jpg',width = 7,height = 5)
plot(out.fect, type = "equiv", ylim = c(-0.05,0.05), ylab = "Effect on Expropriation",
cex.legend = 0.6, main = "Testing Pre-Trend (MC)", cex.text = 0.8)
ggsave('Figures//FigureB6.jpg',width = 7,height = 5)
modC1.a <- lfe::felm(left_pop_blair ~ res_gdp_ihs.lag1 + fdi_inflow_ihs.lag1 +net.inforce.bits.lag1.ihs + ln.total.trade.lag1+log(gdp.lag1)+ log(pop.lag1) +
active.imfloans.lag1 + left_pop_blair.lag1 +
cum.cases.isds.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) + gdp.growth.wb.lag1 +
pop.land.ratio.lag1 + is.democ.lag1 |ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df)
modC1.b <- lfe::felm(pop.leader.blair ~ res_gdp_ihs.lag1 + fdi_inflow_ihs.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1.ihs + ln.total.trade.lag1+ log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) +
active.imfloans.lag1 + pop.leader.blair.lag1 +
cum.cases.isds.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) + gdp.growth.wb.lag1 +
pop.land.ratio.lag1 + is.democ.lag1|ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df)
modC1.c <- lfe::felm(left_pop_dpi ~ res_gdp_ihs.lag1 + fdi_inflow_ihs.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1.ihs + ln.total.trade.lag1+ log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) +
active.imfloans.lag1  +left_pop_dpi.lag1+
cum.cases.isds.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) + gdp.growth.wb.lag1 +
pop.land.ratio.lag1 + is.democ.lag1 |ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df)
stargazer(modC1.a,modC1.b,modC1.c,type = 'text',keep.stat = c('n','rsq'),font.size = 'scriptsize',dep.var.caption = "",
dep.var.labels = c('Pop. Leader','Left. Pop. Leader','Left. Pop. Leader DPI'),no.space = T,
covariate.labels = c("Natural Resource Rents/GDP$_{t-1}$","FDI Inflow$_{t-1}$","Num BITs Total$_{t-1}$",
"Log Total Trade$_{t-1}$","Log Population$_{t-1}$","Log GDP$_{t-1}$","Active IMF Loan$_{t-1}$",
"Populist Leader$_{t-1}$","Left Pop. Leader$_{t-1}$","Left Pop. Leader DPI$_{t-1}$",
"ISDS Cases$_{t-1}$","GDP Growth$_{t-1}$",
"Population/Land$_{t-1}$","Democracy$_{t-1}$"),
add.lines = list(c('Country Fixed Effects','Yes','Yes','Yes'),c('Year Fixed Effects','Yes','Yes','Yes')),
out = 'Tables//TableC1.doc')
stargazer(modC1.a,modC1.b,modC1.c,type = 'html',keep.stat = c('n','rsq'),font.size = 'scriptsize',dep.var.caption = "",
dep.var.labels = c('Pop. Leader','Left. Pop. Leader','Left. Pop. Leader DPI'),no.space = T,
covariate.labels = c("Natural Resource Rents/GDP$_{t-1}$","FDI Inflow$_{t-1}$","Num BITs Total$_{t-1}$",
"Log Total Trade$_{t-1}$","Log Population$_{t-1}$","Log GDP$_{t-1}$","Active IMF Loan$_{t-1}$",
"Populist Leader$_{t-1}$","Left Pop. Leader$_{t-1}$","Left Pop. Leader DPI$_{t-1}$",
"ISDS Cases$_{t-1}$","GDP Growth$_{t-1}$",
"Population/Land$_{t-1}$","Democracy$_{t-1}$"),
add.lines = list(c('Country Fixed Effects','Yes','Yes','Yes'),c('Year Fixed Effects','Yes','Yes','Yes')),
out = 'Tables//TableC1.doc')
out.fect.dpi <- fect(foreign.exp.dummy ~ left_pop_dpi + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1)    +log.res_gdp.lag1 +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1  + active.imfloans.lag1 + foreign.exp.dummy.lag1  + pop.land.ratio.lag1+
is.democ.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1, data = main.df, index = c("ccode.cow","year"), na.rm = T,
force = "two-way", se = TRUE, parallel = TRUE, nboots = 200,method = "mc", CV = TRUE,seed = 1234)
stargazer(mech1.res.blair,mech1.res.dpi,mech2.growth.blair,mech2.growth.dpi,type = 'html',
title = 'Costs of Expropriation Moderate Left Populists Propensity to Expropriate',
label = 'cost_exp', keep.stat = c('n','rsq'),font.size = 'scriptsize',dep.var.caption = "",dep.var.labels.include = F,
column.labels = c('Nat. Resources','Nat. Resources','Growth','Growth'),no.space = T,
covariate.labels = c("Left Populist Leader (Blair)$_{t-1}$","Left Populist Leader (DPI)$_{t-1}$","Log Natural Resource Rents/GDP$_{t-1}$",
"Expropriation Dummy$_{t-1}$","Num BITs Total$_{t-1}$","Log Population$_{t-1}$","Log GDP$_{t-1}$",
"GDP Growth$_{t-1}$","FDI/GDP$_{t-1}$", "Trade Openness$_{t-1}$","Active IMF Loan$_{t-1}$","Population/Land$_{t-1}$","Democracy$_{t-1}$",
"Left Populist Leader (Blair)$_{t-1}$ X \\text{Log Natural Resource Rents/GDP}$_{t-1}$",
"Left Populist Leader (DPI)$_{t-1}$ X \\text{Log Natural Resource Rents/GDP}$_{t-1}$",
"Left Populist Leader (Blair)$_{t-1}$ X \\text{GDP Growth}$_{t-1}$",
"Left Populist Leader (DPI)$_{t-1}$ X \\text{GDP Growth}$_{t-1}$"),
add.lines = list(c('Country Fixed Effects','Yes','Yes','Yes','Yes'),c('Year Fixed Effects','Yes','Yes','Yes','Yes')),
out = 'Tables//TableB9.doc')
out.fect.dpi$est.avg
shorten <-  read_csv('Data//ReplicationData_II_JudReiter_230815.csv')
colnames(shorten)
shorten <-  read_csv('Data//ReplicationData_II_JudReiter_230815.csv') %>%
dplyr::select(1:29,82,85,90,109,118,122:221,223,224,225,226,227,230,231,233:247,274,279,280)
write_csv(shorten,'Data//ReplicationData_II_JudReiter_230816.csv')
rm(list = ls())
if (!require("pacman")) install.packages("pacman")
library(pacman)
pacman::p_load(tidyverse,lfe,readxl,stargazer,interflex,sandwich,lmtest,clubSandwich,fect,
marginaleffects,brglm,survival,survminer,ggpubr,margins,PanelMatch,flextable,modelsummary,
gtsummary)
main.df <- read_csv('Data//ReplicationData_II_JudReiter_230816.csv')
ggplot(data = main.df %>% dplyr::filter(year > 1989) %>% dplyr::mutate(pop.leader.blair = as.factor(pop.leader.blair)),
aes(x=pop.leader.blair,y=exec.ecopref)) +
geom_boxplot(fill='grey',color='black') + scale_x_discrete(labels = c('0'='Non Populist','1'='Populist')) +
xlab('Populist Ideology') + ylab('Left-Right Ideology') + ggtitle("Left-Right Ideology Difference Populist vs. Non-Populists") +  theme_bw()
ggsave('Figures//Figure1.jpeg',width = 7,height = 6)
#####Figure 3######
main.df <- main.df %>% dplyr::mutate(rightist = if_else(exec.ecopref >= 0,1,0),
type = if_else(pop.leader.blair == 1 & rightist ==1,'right_popul',
if_else(pop.leader.blair==1 & rightist == 0,'left_popul',
if_else(pop.leader.blair == 0 & rightist == 1,'right_nonpopul','left_nonpopul'))))
exp.by.type <- main.df %>% filter(year > 1989) %>% group_by(type) %>% summarize(exp.events.dummy=sum(foreign.exp.dummy,na.rm = T)) %>% drop_na() %>% ungroup()
#This table includes the main results. In the paper, figure 4 is based on the result from model test1d.int
#Models
test1a.int <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~ pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1|ccode.cow|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df)
test1b.int <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~ pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1|ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df)
test1c.int <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) +res_gdp.lag1 +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1 + foreign.exp.dummy.lag1 + pop.land.ratio.lag1
|ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df)
test1d.int <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) + res_gdp.lag1  +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1 + foreign.exp.dummy.lag1  + pop.land.ratio.lag1+
is.democ.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1 |ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df)
test1e.int <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) + res_gdp.lag1  +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1 + foreign.exp.dummy.lag1  + pop.land.ratio.lag1+
is.democ.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1 |ccode.cow + region.year.fe|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df)
stargazer(test1a.int,test1b.int,test1c.int,test1d.int,test1e.int,type = 'text',title = 'Main Results Effects of Populism on Expropriation',
label = 'res.pop.exp.interaction', keep.stat = c('n','rsq'),font.size = 'scriptsize',dep.var.caption = "",
dep.var.labels = 'Foreign Expropriation Event',
order = c(1,2,14,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13),
covariate.labels = c("Populist Leader$_{t-1}$","Economic Ideology$_{t-1}$","Populist Leader$_{t-1}$ X \\text{Economic Ideology}$_{t-1}$",
"Log Population$_{t-1}$","Log GDP$_{t-1}$","Natural Resource Rents/GDP$_{t-1}$","GDP Growth$_{t-1}$","FDI/GDP$_{t-1}$","Trade Openness$_{t-1}$","Active IMF Loan$_{t-1}$",
"Foreign Expropriation Event$_{t-1}$","Population/Land$_{t-1}$","Democracy$_{t-1}$","Num BITs Total$_{t-1}$"),
add.lines = list(c('Country Fixed Effects','Yes','Yes','Yes','Yes','Yes'),c('Year Fixed Effects','No','Yes','Yes','Yes','No'),
c('Region-Year Fixed Effects','No','No','No','No','Yes')),
out = 'Tables//Table_B1.doc')
stargazer(test1a.int,test1b.int,test1c.int,test1d.int,test1e.int,type = 'html',title = 'Main Results Effects of Populism on Expropriation',
label = 'res.pop.exp.interaction', keep.stat = c('n','rsq'),font.size = 'scriptsize',dep.var.caption = "",
dep.var.labels = 'Foreign Expropriation Event',
order = c(1,2,14,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13),
covariate.labels = c("Populist Leader$_{t-1}$","Economic Ideology$_{t-1}$","Populist Leader$_{t-1}$ X \\text{Economic Ideology}$_{t-1}$",
"Log Population$_{t-1}$","Log GDP$_{t-1}$","Natural Resource Rents/GDP$_{t-1}$","GDP Growth$_{t-1}$","FDI/GDP$_{t-1}$","Trade Openness$_{t-1}$","Active IMF Loan$_{t-1}$",
"Foreign Expropriation Event$_{t-1}$","Population/Land$_{t-1}$","Democracy$_{t-1}$","Num BITs Total$_{t-1}$"),
add.lines = list(c('Country Fixed Effects','Yes','Yes','Yes','Yes','Yes'),c('Year Fixed Effects','No','Yes','Yes','Yes','No'),
c('Region-Year Fixed Effects','No','No','No','No','Yes')),
out = 'Tables//Table_B1.doc')
#Calculate marginal effect of populism on expropriation (reported inside the text)
test1d.int.lm <- lm(foreign.exp.dummy ~pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1+ log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) + log(res_gdp.lag1+1)  +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1 + foreign.exp.dummy.lag1  + pop.land.ratio.lag1+
is.democ.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1 + factor(ccode.cow) + factor(year),data = main.df)
summary(margins(test1d.int.lm,vcov = vcovCR(test1d.int.lm,cluster = main.df$ccode.cow,type = 'CR2'),variables = 'pop.leader.blair.lag1'))
interaction_plot<- function(model, effect, moderator, interaction, varcov, at, conf=.95,miny,maxy,title,xlabel,ylabel){
# Extract Variance Covariance matrix
covMat = varcov
# Extract the data frame of the model
mod_frame = model.frame(model)
# Get coefficients of variables
beta_1 = model$coefficients[[effect]]
beta_3 = model$coefficients[[interaction]]
# Create list of moderator values at which marginal effect is evaluated
x_2 <- at
# Compute marginal effects
delta_1 = beta_1 + beta_3*x_2
# Compute variances
var_1 = covMat[effect,effect] + (x_2^2)*covMat[interaction, interaction] + 2*x_2*covMat[effect, interaction]
# Standard errors
se_1 = sqrt(var_1)
# Upper and lower confidence bounds
z_score = qnorm(1 - ((1 - conf)/2))
upper_bound = delta_1 + z_score*se_1
lower_bound = delta_1 - z_score*se_1
#Make Plot
ggplot() + geom_line(aes(x=x_2,y=delta_1)) + geom_ribbon(aes(x=x_2,y=delta_1,ymin=lower_bound,ymax=upper_bound),alpha=0.5) +
geom_hline(yintercept = 0,linetype='dashed') + ylim(miny,maxy) + xlim(min(x_2),max(x_2)) +
xlab(xlabel) + ylab(ylabel) + ggtitle(title) + theme_bw()
}
#Make Figure
interaction_plot(test1d.int,1,2,14,
varcov = test1d.int$clustervcv,at=seq(min(main.df$exec.ecopref.lag1,na.rm = T),max(main.df$exec.ecopref.lag1,na.rm = T),0.1),
maxy = 0.4,miny = -0.2,title = '',
xlabel = "Left-Right Ideology", ylabel = 'Marginal Effect of Populist Leader on Probability of Expropriation')
mech1.res.blair <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~ left_pop_blair.lag1*log(res_gdp.lag1) +  foreign.exp.dummy.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1.ihs + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1+ pop.land.ratio.lag1 +
is.democ.lag1   |ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df)
mech2.growth.blair <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~ left_pop_blair.lag1*gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + log(res_gdp.lag1) +  foreign.exp.dummy.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1.ihs + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) +
fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1+ pop.land.ratio.lag1 +
is.democ.lag1   |ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df)
mech1.res.dpi <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~ left_pop_dpi.lag1*log(res_gdp.lag1) +  foreign.exp.dummy.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1.ihs + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1+ pop.land.ratio.lag1 +
is.democ.lag1   |ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df)
mech2.growth.dpi <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~ left_pop_dpi.lag1*gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + log(res_gdp.lag1) +  foreign.exp.dummy.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1.ihs + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) +
fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1+ pop.land.ratio.lag1 +
is.democ.lag1   |ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df)
main.df <- main.df %>% mutate(year = as.integer(year))
DisplayTreatment(unit.id = 'ccode.wb',time.id = 'year',treatment = 'pop.leader.blair',data = as.data.frame(main.df),
title = "Periods with Populist Leaders", legend.position = 'right',
legend.labels = c("No Populists", "Populists"),xlab = 'Year',ylab = 'Country')
#####Table A1 (Appendix)######
covs.models <- c('foreign.exp.dummy','termin.bits','pop.leader.blair.lag1','exec.ecopref.lag1','net.inforce.bits.lag1.ihs',
"log.pop.lag1",'log.gdp.lag1', 'log.res_gdp.lag1','gdp.growth.wb.lag1','fdi.gdp.lag1','trade.openness.lag1',
'active.imfloans.lag1','pop.land.ratio.lag1','is.democ.lag1')
desc.df <- main.df %>% dplyr::filter(year > 1989)%>% dplyr::select(all_of(covs.models)) %>% as.data.frame()
#####Table A1 (Appendix)######
covs.models <- c('foreign.exp.dummy','pop.leader.blair.lag1','exec.ecopref.lag1','net.inforce.bits.lag1.ihs',
"log.pop.lag1",'log.gdp.lag1', 'log.res_gdp.lag1','gdp.growth.wb.lag1','fdi.gdp.lag1','trade.openness.lag1',
'active.imfloans.lag1','pop.land.ratio.lag1','is.democ.lag1')
desc.df <- main.df %>% dplyr::filter(year > 1989)%>% dplyr::select(all_of(covs.models)) %>% as.data.frame()
stargazer(desc.df,type = 'html',covariate.labels = c("Foreign Expropriation Event","Number BITs Terminated","Populist Leader$_{t-1}$","Economic Ideology$_{t-1}$","Num BITs Total$_{t-1}$",
"Log Population$_{t-1}$","Log GDP$_{t-1}$","GDP Growth$_{t-1}$","FDI/GDP$_{t-1}$","Trade Openness$_{t-1}$",
"Log Natural Resource Rents/GDP$_{t-1}$","Active IMF Loan$_{t-1}$",
"Population/Land$_{t-1}$","Democracy$_{t-1}$"),
out = 'Tables//TableA1.doc')
stargazer(desc.df,type = 'html',covariate.labels = c("Foreign Expropriation Event","Populist Leader$_{t-1}$","Economic Ideology$_{t-1}$","Num BITs Total$_{t-1}$",
"Log Population$_{t-1}$","Log GDP$_{t-1}$","GDP Growth$_{t-1}$","FDI/GDP$_{t-1}$","Trade Openness$_{t-1}$",
"Log Natural Resource Rents/GDP$_{t-1}$","Active IMF Loan$_{t-1}$",
"Population/Land$_{t-1}$","Democracy$_{t-1}$"),
out = 'Tables//TableA1.doc')
#Models
test1e <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~ exec.popul.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1+ log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) + res_gdp_ihs.lag1 +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1 + foreign.exp.dummy.lag1  + pop.land.ratio.lag1+
is.democ.lag1  + net.inforce.bits.lag1 |ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df)
test1f <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~ pop.leader.blair.lag1*coal.ecopref.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) +res_gdp_ihs.lag1 +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1 + foreign.exp.dummy.lag1  + pop.land.ratio.lag1+
is.democ.lag1  + net.inforce.bits.lag1 |ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df)
test1g <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~ pop.leader.blair.lag1*execrlc.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) +res_gdp_ihs.lag1 +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1 + foreign.exp.dummy.lag1  + pop.land.ratio.lag1+
is.democ.lag1  + net.inforce.bits.lag1 |ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df)
test1l <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~ left_pop_dpi.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) + foreign.exp.dummy.lag1 +res_gdp_ihs.lag1 +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1  + pop.land.ratio.lag1+
is.democ.lag1  + net.inforce.bits.lag1 |ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df)
#Sub-sample: Only countries that had at least once a leftist populist government
ccode.lp <- main.df %>% group_by(ccode.cow) %>% summarise(mean.treat = mean(pop.leader.blair,na.rm =T)) %>% drop_na() %>% filter(mean.treat > 0 & mean.treat < 1) %>%
dplyr::pull(.,ccode.cow)
test1h <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~ pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) +res_gdp.lag1 +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1+ foreign.exp.dummy.lag1 + pop.land.ratio.lag1 +
is.democ.lag1  + net.inforce.bits.lag1|ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df  %>% dplyr::filter(ccode.cow %in% ccode.lp))
#Sub-sample: No South american countries
test1i.nonLA <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~ pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) +res_gdp.lag1 +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1+ foreign.exp.dummy.lag1 + pop.land.ratio.lag1 +
is.democ.lag1  + net.inforce.bits.lag1|ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = filter(main.df,region.fine.grained != 'South America'))
#Sub-sample: Only South american countries
test1i.onlyLA <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~ pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) +res_gdp.lag1 +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1+ foreign.exp.dummy.lag1 + pop.land.ratio.lag1 +
is.democ.lag1  + net.inforce.bits.lag1|ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = filter(main.df,region.fine.grained == 'South America'))
#Sub-sample: No Eastern European countries
test1i.nonEE <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~ pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) +res_gdp.lag1 +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1+ foreign.exp.dummy.lag1 + pop.land.ratio.lag1 +
is.democ.lag1  + net.inforce.bits.lag1 |ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = filter(main.df,region.fine.grained != "Eastern Europe"))
#Sub-sample: No Venezuela
test1i.nonVEN <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~ pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) +res_gdp.lag1 +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1+ foreign.exp.dummy.lag1 + pop.land.ratio.lag1 +
is.democ.lag1  + net.inforce.bits.lag1 |ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = filter(main.df,ccode.cow != 101))
##Make Table
stargazer(test1h,test1i.nonLA,test1i.onlyLA,test1i.nonEE,test1i.nonVEN,type = 'text',title = 'Effect of Populism on Expropriation in Different Sub-Samples',
label = 'res.pop.exp.subsamp', keep.stat = c('n','rsq'),font.size = 'scriptsize',dep.var.caption = "",
dep.var.labels = 'Sub-Samples', column.labels = c('Populist Hist.','Non-Latin','Only Latin','No EE','No VEN'),
order = c(1,2,14,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13),no.space = T,
covariate.labels = c("Populist Leader$_{t-1}$","Economic Ideology$_{t-1}$","Populist Leader$_{t-1}$ X \\text{Economic Ideology}$_{t-1}$",
"Log Population$_{t-1}$","Log GDP$_{t-1}$","Natural Resource Rents/GDP$_{t-1}$","GDP Growth$_{t-1}$","FDI/GDP$_{t-1}$","Trade Openness$_{t-1}$","Active IMF Loan$_{t-1}$",
"Foreign Expropriation Event$_{t-1}$","Population/Land$_{t-1}$","Democracy$_{t-1}$","Num BITs Total$_{t-1}$"),
add.lines = list(c('Country Fixed Effects','Yes','Yes','Yes','Yes','Yes'),c('Year Fixed Effects','Yes','Yes','Yes','Yes','Yes')),
out = 'Tables//TableB3.doc')
##Make Table
stargazer(test1h,test1i.nonLA,test1i.onlyLA,test1i.nonEE,test1i.nonVEN,type = 'html',title = 'Effect of Populism on Expropriation in Different Sub-Samples',
label = 'res.pop.exp.subsamp', keep.stat = c('n','rsq'),font.size = 'scriptsize',dep.var.caption = "",
dep.var.labels = 'Sub-Samples', column.labels = c('Populist Hist.','Non-Latin','Only Latin','No EE','No VEN'),
order = c(1,2,14,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13),no.space = T,
covariate.labels = c("Populist Leader$_{t-1}$","Economic Ideology$_{t-1}$","Populist Leader$_{t-1}$ X \\text{Economic Ideology}$_{t-1}$",
"Log Population$_{t-1}$","Log GDP$_{t-1}$","Natural Resource Rents/GDP$_{t-1}$","GDP Growth$_{t-1}$","FDI/GDP$_{t-1}$","Trade Openness$_{t-1}$","Active IMF Loan$_{t-1}$",
"Foreign Expropriation Event$_{t-1}$","Population/Land$_{t-1}$","Democracy$_{t-1}$","Num BITs Total$_{t-1}$"),
add.lines = list(c('Country Fixed Effects','Yes','Yes','Yes','Yes','Yes'),c('Year Fixed Effects','Yes','Yes','Yes','Yes','Yes')),
out = 'Tables//TableB3.doc')
##Models
#Added CV: Communist Dummy
test1i.commies <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~ pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) +res_gdp.lag1 +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1+ foreign.exp.dummy.lag1 + pop.land.ratio.lag1 +
is.democ.lag1  + net.inforce.bits.lag1 + communist_dummy.lag1|ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df)
#Added CV: Legislative Constraints (Esberg & Perlman)
test1i.legcon <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~ pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) +res_gdp.lag1 +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1+ foreign.exp.dummy.lag1 + pop.land.ratio.lag1 +
net.inforce.bits.lag1 + leg_con_vdem.lag1|ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df)
#Added CV: Vertical Accountability (Esberg & Perlman)
test1i.veraccount <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~ pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) +res_gdp.lag1 +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1+ foreign.exp.dummy.lag1 + pop.land.ratio.lag1 +
net.inforce.bits.lag1 +vert_acc_vdem.lag1 |ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df)
#Cox Model Approach
surv1a <- survival::coxph(Surv(t0, t1, foreign.exp.dummy) ~pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) + log.res_gdp.lag1 +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1+ foreign.exp.dummy.lag1 + pop.land.ratio.lag1 +
is.democ.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1 + cluster(ccode.cow),
data = main.df)
#Subset data to observations with common support on Ideology Scale
maxmin.ideo <- main.df %>% filter(pop.leader.blair==1) %>% summarize(maxIdeo = max(exec.ecopref.lag1,na.rm=T),
minIdeo = min(exec.ecopref.lag1,na.rm = T)) %>% as.matrix()
csupp.main.df <- main.df %>% dplyr::filter(exec.ecopref.lag1 < maxmin.ideo[1] & exec.ecopref.lag1 > maxmin.ideo[2])
#####Figure B4 (Appendix)######
#Ideology Squared Model
test1d.int.cs.sq <- lfe::felm(foreign.exp.dummy ~pop.leader.blair.lag1*I(exec.ecopref.lag1^2) + pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) + res_gdp.lag1  +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1 + foreign.exp.dummy.lag1  + pop.land.ratio.lag1+
is.democ.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1|ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = csupp.main.df)
main.df$korbin_all_dummy <- if_else(main.df$korbin_cov_exp_dummy == 1 | main.df$korbin_exprop_dummy == 1,1,0)
main.df$korbin_all_dummy.lag1 <- if_else(main.df$korbin_cov_exp_dummy.lag1 == 1 | main.df$korbin_exprop_dummy.lag1 == 1,1,0)
#Models
test1d.korbin <- lfe::felm(korbin_exprop_dummy ~pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) + res_gdp.lag1  +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1 + korbin_exprop_dummy.lag1  + pop.land.ratio.lag1+
is.democ.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1 |ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data =  main.df)
test1d.korbin.cov <- lfe::felm(korbin_cov_exp_dummy ~ pop.leader.blair.lag1*exec.ecopref.lag1 + exec.ecopref.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) + res_gdp.lag1  +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + active.imfloans.lag1 + korbin_cov_exp_dummy.lag1  + pop.land.ratio.lag1+
is.democ.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1 |ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data =  main.df)
out.fect.dpi <- fect(foreign.exp.dummy ~ left_pop_dpi + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1)    +log.res_gdp.lag1 +
gdp.growth.wb.lag1 + trade.openness.lag1 + fdi.gdp.lag1  + active.imfloans.lag1 + foreign.exp.dummy.lag1  + pop.land.ratio.lag1+
is.democ.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1, data = main.df, index = c("ccode.cow","year"), na.rm = T,
force = "two-way", se = TRUE, parallel = TRUE, nboots = 200,method = "mc", CV = TRUE,seed = 1234)
#Models
modC1.a <- lfe::felm(left_pop_blair ~ res_gdp_ihs.lag1 + fdi_inflow_ihs.lag1 +net.inforce.bits.lag1.ihs + ln.total.trade.lag1+log(gdp.lag1)+ log(pop.lag1) +
active.imfloans.lag1 + left_pop_blair.lag1 +
cum.cases.isds.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) + gdp.growth.wb.lag1 +
pop.land.ratio.lag1 + is.democ.lag1 |ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df)
modC1.b <- lfe::felm(pop.leader.blair ~ res_gdp_ihs.lag1 + fdi_inflow_ihs.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1.ihs + ln.total.trade.lag1+ log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) +
active.imfloans.lag1 + pop.leader.blair.lag1 +
cum.cases.isds.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) + gdp.growth.wb.lag1 +
pop.land.ratio.lag1 + is.democ.lag1|ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df)
modC1.c <- lfe::felm(left_pop_dpi ~ res_gdp_ihs.lag1 + fdi_inflow_ihs.lag1 + net.inforce.bits.lag1.ihs + ln.total.trade.lag1+ log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) +
active.imfloans.lag1  +left_pop_dpi.lag1+
cum.cases.isds.lag1 + log(pop.lag1) + log(gdp.lag1) + gdp.growth.wb.lag1 +
pop.land.ratio.lag1 + is.democ.lag1 |ccode.cow + year|0|ccode.cow,data = main.df)
1/3*0.25^2
1/3*0.25^2+1/3+0.5^2+1/3*0.75^2
0.02083333/0.7916667
1/3*0.5^2
0.08333333/0.7916667
1/3*0.75^2
0.1875/0.7916667
(1/3*0.25^2)+(1/3+0.5^2)+(1/3*0.75^2)
1/3*0.75^2
1/3*0.5^2
(1/3*0.75^2)
(1/3*0.25^2)+(1/3*0.5^2)+(1/3*0.75^2)
0.02083333/0.2916667
0.08333333/0.2916667
0.1875/0.2916667
0.07*0.25+0.29*0.5+0.64*0.75
